Posts in Baa
Chart: Summary Statistics: Baa/Aaa-Treasury Credit Spreads (1925-present)
- 19 August 2026
Monthly Baa-Treasury and Aaa-Treasury credit spreads, with NBER recessions shaded.
Chart: Figure 2: Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-present, extended)
- 19 August 2026
Extension of Figure II past the paper’s 2015 sample end, through the most recent available data.
Chart: Figure 2: Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-2015)
- 19 August 2026
Interactive replication of Figure II: credit-market sentiment at t-2 vs. real GDP-per-capita growth at t, both orthogonalized against Table II column (1)’s other regressor, with the fitted line and influential observations highlighted.
Chart: Figure 1: Baa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2025, extended)
- 19 August 2026
Extension of Figure I past the paper’s 2015 sample end, through the most recent available FRED data.
Chart: Figure 1: Baa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2015)
- 19 August 2026
Interactive replication of Figure I: the monthly Baa-Treasury credit spread over the 1925-2015 sample, with NBER recessions shaded.