Chart List

• Chart: Figure 1 (Aaa variant): Aaa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2015)

  Analogous to Figure I, using the Aaa (instead of Baa) corporate bond spread.

• Chart: Figure 1 (Aaa variant): Aaa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2025, extended)

  Aaa-spread extension of Figure I through the most recent available FRED data.

• Chart: Figure 1: Baa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2015)

  Interactive replication of Figure I: the monthly Baa-Treasury credit spread over the 1925-2015 sample, with NBER recessions shaded.

• Chart: Figure 1: Baa-Treasury Credit Spread (1925-2025, extended)

  Extension of Figure I past the paper’s 2015 sample end, through the most recent available FRED data.

• Chart: Figure 2 (Aaa variant): Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-2015)

  Analogous to Figure II, using the Aaa (instead of Baa) corporate bond spread as the credit-spread component of sentiment.

• Chart: Figure 2 (Aaa variant): Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-present, extended)

  Aaa-spread extension of Figure II through the most recent available data.

• Chart: Figure 2: Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-2015)

  Interactive replication of Figure II: credit-market sentiment at t-2 vs. real GDP-per-capita growth at t, both orthogonalized against Table II column (1)’s other regressor, with the fitted line and influential observations highlighted.

• Chart: Figure 2: Credit-Market Sentiment and GDP Growth (1929-present, extended)

  Extension of Figure II past the paper’s 2015 sample end, through the most recent available data.

• Chart: Summary Statistics: Baa/Aaa-Treasury Credit Spreads (1925-present)

  Monthly Baa-Treasury and Aaa-Treasury credit spreads, with NBER recessions shaded.

• Chart: Summary Statistics: CAPE vs. Subsequent 10-Year S&P Return (1929-present)

  Scatter of Shiller CAPE (P/E10) at year t against the cumulative S&P total return realized over the following 10 years, with a fitted line showing the valuation/mean-reversion relationship.

• Chart: Summary Statistics: Greenwood-Hanson High-Yield Share (1929-present)

  Annual high-yield issuance share, colored by underlying source series.

• Chart: Summary Statistics: Real GDP per Capita Growth (1930-present)

  Annual year-over-year growth in real GDP per capita.